Wildcard Sunday - The numbers
Let's breakdown Sunday's 3 game slate. Starting the day off we have the Pittsburgh Steelers going into Buffalo to take on the Bills. This game has a 35.5-point total with the Bills as 9.5-point favorites. This game is postponed until Monday at 4:30
Steelers -Mason Rudolph will remain the Steelers starter for this game after being able to put together three wins in three weeks. Through-out those three games he has completed 70% of his 71 pass attempts for 716yards and 3 touchdowns. The Bills however have been stout on defense and have only allowed two 300-yard passers. They have held 9 quarterbacks to 200 or less yards and 11 to less than 215. Four quarterbacks have thrown two touchdowns in a game while one has thrown three. They have stopped five quarterbacks from throwing for a single touchdown.
The Bills have allowed two 100-yard rushers since the beginning of October, however both of those were in the first two weeks of October. They have given up an average of 80 yards rushing per game over the past 14 weeks. In that same time frame, they have allowed 9 touchdowns, 4 of those came from the two100 yard rushers. They have held all backs except for one to less than 50 receiving yards. The one who went over was Rachaad White who had 70 yards on 7 catches back in week 9. In the last 14 weeks they have averaged 5 receptions to running backs while giving up an average of 42 receiving yards. They have only allowed 2 receiving touchdowns to the position.
Through-out the last 9 games, the Bills have allowed two receivers to go over 100 yards. Outside of those two, only two more have surpassed 56 yards. They have allowed 6 touchdowns over the last 9 games but only 1 in the past four games. In the past 9 weeks they have allowed 6 receivers to catch at least 7 passes. The Bills have only allowed one receiver group to catch more than one touchdown in the past 9 weeks and that was the Eagles who had three receivers catch one.
Through-out the entire season the Bills have only allowed one tight end to top 51 yards and that was Travis Kelce with 83 in week 14. The tight end position has averaged 5 receptions a game against the Bills while only four have caught 5 or more, nobody has caught more than 7.
Bills -The Steelers have allowed three 300-yard passers on the season while holding three to less than 200.The quarterbacks they held to less than 200 were Tyler Huntley, DTR, and Kyler Murray in his first start back. They have allowed six quarterbacks to throw 2 or more touchdowns. In the past 5 weeks they let both Gardner Minshew and Bailey Zappe throw three touchdowns each.
The Steelers have let up an average of 115 rushing yards per game, but they've only allowed one 100-yard rusher. They've given up 7 touchdowns on the ground to running backs and 3 through the air. Over the last 15 games they have averaged 4 receptions allowed to running backs and an average of 32 receiving yards.
Since the beginning of November, the Steelers have given up two 100-yard receivers and 5 touchdowns. In the last 10 games there have only been three teams to have two receivers with 50 or more receiving yards. In those 10 games only three receivers have scored more than 18 fantasy points. Only one receiver has caught more than 5 passes and that was Elijah Moore who caught 6 for 60 in week 11.
The Steelers have given up an average of 5 receptions to tight ends through-out the season. They've held tight ends to an average of 53 yards while allowing Trey McBride and Evan Engram to have games of 89 and 88 receiving yards. There have been 7 touchdowns given up to the position this season and 2 of those came from Hunter Henry in week 15.
Next game up we have the Packers going into Dallas to play the Cowboys with a 50.5-point total with the Cowboys as 7-point favorites.
Packers -The Cowboys have been great against the pass this season allowing the 5th fewest yards. They've held
10 quarterbacks to less than 200 yards. But they have allowed two 300-yard passers this season and those games came in weeks 13 and 14 to Sam Howell and Geno Smith. There's been 5 quarterbacks to throw for 2 or more touchdowns against them this season, one of them being Geno in week 14.
Running backs have averaged 111 yards against the Cowboys over the past 8 games. In that span only1 running back has topped 65 yards and that was James Cook's big game in week 15 when he went off for 179 yards. They've allowed 4 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving touchdowns in the past 8 games. Over the past 8 weeks the Cowboys have only given up an average of 3 receptions and 25 receiving yards.
The Cowboys have let 2 receivers go over 100 yards in the past 8 games, you can add 3 more receivers who have gone over 90 in that span. They've only given up 4 touchdowns in those games and 3 of them came from DK Metcalf in week 12. They have allowed multiple receivers to go over 50 yards in 5 of those 8 games.
Tight ends have only managed to average 3 receptions per game against the Cowboys in their last 8 games. Only two tight ends have topped 50 yards and those were Durham Smythe with 56, who caught 5 passes and Sam Laporta who got 7 for 84. No tight ends have scored against the Cowboys since Tommy Tremble in week 10.
Cowboys -The Packers have allowed three 300-yard passers this season and they have all come within the last 7weeks. Five quarterbacks have tossed 2 or more touchdowns against the Packers this season. They have held 7 quarterbacks to less than 200 yards and that number jumps to 11 if you extend that to 210 yards.
Over the last 8 games, the Packers have given up one 100-yard rusher. They've allowed an average of 84 rushing yards and only 22 receiving yards in that time frame. Running backs have scored 5 rushing touchdowns and 1 receiving touchdown against them in the past 8 weeks. The backs have caught an average of 3 receptions over the last 8 games.
The Packers have been destroyed by receivers over the past 8 weeks. They have given up two 100-yard receivers and you can add four more who have gone for 90 or more yards. 7 touchdowns have been scored by receivers in 8 games with DJ Chalk scoring twice in week 16. Only three of those games have seen multiple receivers go over 50 yards. Slot receivers have put up the biggest games against the Packers.
Tight ends have scored five touchdowns in the past 8 weeks. The Packers have averaged 61 receiving yards allowed to the tight end position with Travis Kelce being the only tight end to have more than 59years and that was in week 13 when he had 81 yards. The Packers have given up an average of 5receptions to the position in their past 8 games.
The final game of Sunday night is the biggest story line of the weekend. Matthew Stafford and the L.A. Rams head into Detroit to take on Jared Goff and the Lions. This game has a 51.5-point total with the Lions as 3-point favorites.
Rams -The Lions have given up six 300-yard passers this season and 3 of those have come in the last 3 weeks. Two of which were to Nick Mullens. They also allow two touchdowns to be thrown in each of those three games. The Lions have allowed a total of 9 multi touchdown games this season. They have only held 2 quarterbacks to less than 200 yards this season, but that number stretches to 7 if you push it to 225 yards.
The Lions are allowing an average of 61 rushing yards and 24 receiving yards per game over the last 8 weeks. They have allowed just 1 running back to rush for more than 50 yards over the past 8 weeks and that was Ty Chandler who ran for 69 yards in week 18. One running back has had a receiving game over 50 yards and that was Alvin Kamara in week 13 when he caught 6 for 58. The Lions are giving up 3 receptions a game to running backs.
The Lions have been absolutely smoked by receivers over the past three weeks. They got beat up by Justin Jefferson twice while having CeeDee Lamb smack them around in between. Those 2 receivers have combined for 560 yards against the Lions in the last 3 weeks for an average of 186 per game. If you look back at the last 9 games, the Lions have allowed five 100-yard receivers. Looking back at those games the Lions have allowed 15 touchdowns to wide receivers. In those 9 games only 4 times have multiple receivers gone over 50 yards, those were the last 4 games played.
Tight ends have only scored twice in the last 8 weeks against the Lions. On average they give up 4 catches for 56 yards. A tight end hasn't gone over 66 yards receiving against the Lions all season.
Lions -The Rams have allowed five 300-yard passers on the season. Three of which have come in the past five weeks. 6 quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns. They have only held 3 quarterbacks to less than 200 yards and one of those was Sam Darnold last week.
The Rams have been very good against the run over the last 8 weeks, not allowing a running back to rush for more than 54 yards or receive or more than 33. They've only given up 1 rushing touchdown and 1 receiving touchdown in that time span. In those 8 weeks they have given up an average of 61 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards. While giving up an average of 5 receptions per game.
In the last 8 weeks the Rams have allowed three 100-yard performances by receivers, you can add 4more who have put up 83 or more yards. In those 8 games they have allowed 11 touchdowns. Four of those games have had multiple receivers go over 50 yards.
Tight ends have scored 3 touchdowns against the Rams over the last 8 weeks. In that time span they have averaged 54 yards allowed to the position while only 1 has surpassed 60 yards and that was Isaiah Likely with 83 in week 14.
The Approach -With all this being taken into consideration, I won't be stacking the Steelers/Bills game and will focus on these games in a dome. Matthew Stafford is my favorite quarterback to target. I'll have some exposure to Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love in that order. When it comes to running backs, I'll look to target the guys in the Monday afternoon game. Najee Harris is my favorite running back, followed by James Cook, Jaylen Warren, Aaron Jones, and Tony Pollard. I don't mind the idea of getting some Uncle Lenny as well. Jumping over to wide receivers, I'll focus on having at least two of the guys priced at and above $7,200. Dipping below that I like Jayden Reed and Brandon Cooks. My favorite value play is Demarcus Robinson, but I'll get to some Shakir and Sherfield as well. Jake Ferguson will be my highest owned tight end and after that it's kind of a toss-up. I like the idea of Dalton Kincaid with Gabe Davis being ruled out.
Good luck and lets win some money!
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