Wild Card Weekend Saturday DFS By The Numbers
Wildcard Saturday - The numbers
What's up folks?! In addition to our weekly Double Coverage DFS podcast on the Dynasty DNA Podcasting Network, we'll be putting up an article for each slate through-out the playoffs. These articles will provide a short breakdown on each team and who I plan to build around.
Starting off Saturday's two game slate is the Cleveland Browns going into Houston to take on the Texans. As of writing this, the game has a 44.5-point total with the Browns as 3-point favorites.
Browns -The Browns signed 38-year-old Joe Flacco off his couch back in November and were forced to start him in week 13 against the Rams. He started off slow in his first week, but then stacked up four 300 yard passing games on his way to a 4-1 record as the starter, throwing for multiple touchdowns in all five starts. He ended the season with 1,616 yards and 13 touchdowns. With the Browns being locked into the 5th seed last week, Flacco and the starters were given last week off. Now he gets to face off against a team that has allowed three, 300 yard passing games in the past 7 weeks. One of which he produced in Week 16. Is he actually elite? He has elite company when it comes to road playoff wins. If he were to beat the Texans on Saturday afternoon, he would have the most road playoff wins in NFL history. A record that he currently shares with Tom Brady, who Flacco got two of those wins against.
Amari Cooper. Amari Cooper. Amari. Cooper. Thats who holds the Brown's franchise record for the most receiving yards in a single game. That game was against these Houston Texans just three weeks ago when he caught 11 of 15 targets for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Texans have struggled against outside receivers, which is where Cooper lines up 82% of the time. The Browns will be without Cedrick Tillman which could open things up for David Bell. Manning the slot will be Elijah Moore who has more playing time with Flacco going back to their time as Jets last season. In their five starts together this year Moore has 16 catches on 31 targets for 222 yards. Rounding out the receiving group for the Browns will be David Njoku. This man has been on fire this year. Yeah, I know, funny guy. Really though, he has been red hot since Flacco took over starting duties. Njoku has caught at least 6 passes in each of Flacco's 4wins. In those 4 wins he has 28 catches on 39 targets for 373 yards and 4 touchdowns. Njoku should be able to keep the streak going against the Texans who allow an average of 8 targets and 57 yards to the tight end position.
The Texans have been pretty stout against running backs this season. They only gave up one 100-yard rushing game this entire season and that came last week from Jonathan Taylor. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt will continue to split snaps which makes the Cleveland running backs even less enticing. If you take out JT's big game in week 18, the Texans have given up an average of 90 rushing yards per game to running backs. They've given up 11 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs. They give up an average of 5 receptions a game to running backs, but they've held all but 1 running back to less than 50 yards receiving and the lone back to go over that was Breece Hall.
Texans -Now on the opposite side of this game, we'll have a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud taking on the veteran. The Cleveland Browns have only allowed one 300-yard passer this season and that was back in week 6. They have however allowed 7 quarterbacks to throw 2 or more touchdowns. But they have held 10 quarterbacks to less than 200 yards. Stroud has played a lot better while playing at home, averaging over 300 yards per game and tossing 17 of his 23 touchdowns. However, I don't think that matters this Saturday. When facing top 10 passing defenses this year, Stroud has struggled. This Saturday afternoon he'll have to face off against the #1 pass defense in the league.
Nico Collins will lead the charge for this receiving group, has he has done all season. He'll do so facing his toughest task of the season though. The Browns have surrendered just one, 100-yard receiver this season. That was rookie recorder holder, Puka Nacua back in week 13. They have given up 8touchdowns to wide receivers in the last 10 games. Over those 10 games they have held all but 2receivers to less than 55 yards. As I mentioned above, these two teams faced off in week 16. In that game the Texans leader in receiving was Noah Brown who caught 3 of 7 for 38 yards. The Texans had to roll out Case Keenum in that game who was eventually benched for Davis Mills. Robert Woods, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz will round out the receiving group for the Texans. Out of these three, Dalton Schultz leads in targets, yards, and touchdowns. The Browns have given up 4 catches a game to tight ends, but on average they only give up 33 yards to the position. They've given up 6 touchdowns this season to tight ends but 4 of those came from Andrews and Engram who had two each.
The Browns have only allowed two 100-yard rushers this season, the first was Warren in week 11 and the second was Joe Mixon last week when the Browns sat their starters. If you take those games out, they haven't allowed anybody to rush for more than 88 yards and have allowed an average of 31 yards to 33running backs. If you break that down to each team's leading rusher, they average 52 yards allowed per game through 12 weeks. They've allowed 9 rushing touchdowns and 4 receiving touchdowns to running backs since week 3. Three of those receiving touchdowns have come in the past 3 weeks. The only time they have given up two touchdowns to the position was week 18 against Joe Mixon when they rested their starters. The most receiving yards allowed to a back this season was 45.
From a showdown viewpoint, my favorite captains will be Amari Cooper and David Njoku. I'll focus on 4-2Browns heavy builds. There isn't any real value on this showdown slate, so I'll probably get to a lot of the 5k range. Building with kickers and Cleveland's defense will allow me to get most of the players I want.
Moving onto the night game, we have the Miami Dolphins going into Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. The game currently sits at a 44-point total with the Chiefs as 4.5-point favorites.
Dolphins -Tua hasn't put up a slate breaking type of game since week three when they faced the Broncos. He has actually struggled quite a bit this season when facing strong defenses. Now he gets to go into a game that is expected to have temperatures around zero with 15mph winds against the 4th ranked pass defense. This Chiefs passing defense has been top notch on the season, not allowing anybody to pass for more than 284 yards all season. They have held 8 QBs to under 200 yards and you can add 3 more for a total of 11 QBs if you stretch that to 225 yards. One of those games was to Tua and the Dolphins in week 10when Tua threw 34 times for 193 yards and 1 touchdown. The Chiefs have allowed just 4 quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns. Two QBs have thrown for 3 TDs and 2 more have thrown for 2 TDs. There were 4 games this year that the Chiefs didn't allow any passing TDs.
Everybody is hyping up the "return of Hill to KC!". Which is actually really annoying to me because he already returned in week 10 and was held to 61 yards on 8 catches. In the last 10 games, the Chiefs have allowed 7 receivers to go over 50 yards. Only one of them had more than 79 receiving yards. In that same time frame, they have only given up 4 touchdowns to receivers. We'll see Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios, and Durham Smythe finish off this pass catching group. The Chiefs are giving up an average of 7 targets per game to the tight end position. Those result in 5 receptions per game. While giving up an average of 45 yards. In the 17 games played this season they have allowed just 5 tight ends to have more than 50 yards. All of them have been under 58 except for Hunter Henry with 66 and Donald Parham with 83, Parham's game came last week when the Chiefs sat their starters. The Chiefs have only allowed4 touchdowns to tight ends this season, 1 of those being to Hunter Henry.
The Chiefs have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns and 5 receiving touchdowns to running backs since week5. They haven't allowed running backs to score more than once on them in a single game. They have 89rushing yards allowed per game and 52 receiving yards per game since week 5. Running backs have averaged 6 targets and 5 catches since week 14. Since week 5 the Chiefs have only allowed 4 running backs to have 100+ total yards. Only 2 of them had over 100 yards rushing. Only 6 running backs have ran for more than 75 yards in the last 14 weeks.
Chiefs -The Dolphins have allowed 5 300+ yard passing games. 3 of those have come in the past 5 weeks. They have only held 6 QBs to less than 200 yards this season. They have allowed 7 QBs to throw for 2 or more touchdowns including one for 4 and one for 5. The one for 5 was two weeks ago against the ravens when Lamarr threw for 5 and Huntley threw for 1. 10 QBs have thrown for 225 or more yards. Pat Mahomes has been better at home this season. He has thrown 17 of his 27 touchdowns at home. He averages 260 passing yards and 29 rushing yards per game this season at Arrowhead.
The Dolphins have allowed 4 100+ receivers in their last 5 games. Those are the only 100-yard receivers in the past 9 games. The Dolphins have allowed 8 touchdowns in the past 9 weeks, but no receivers have caught more than one. Only 1 team had 2 receivers score, that was the Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Cooks. The Dolphins have allowed 9 receivers to go over 50 yards since the beginning of November. The Dolphins are giving up an average of 7 targets and 5 catches to tight ends per game. They give up an average of 53 yards per game. They have allowed 3 tight ends to go for 77 or more yards. They have left up 7 touchdowns to tight ends, 4 of which have come in the past 2 weeks.
The Dolphins have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving touchdowns to running backs since week 3. Derrick Henry is the only RB to score twice against them but the Ravens running backs combined to score 4 times, 2 on the ground and 2 through the air. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 69 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards per game since week 3. They have allowed an average of 5 targets and 4 receptions per game to running backs. Since week 3 the Dolphins have only allowed 2 running backs to top 100 total yards and those were Justice Hill 2 weeks ago and Tyjae Spears in week 14. No running back has topped 88 rushing yards.
For showdown, I'll focus on Rice, Pacheco, and Kelce as my captains. I'll focus on 4-2 Chiefs heavy builds for this matchup and probably get to some 5-1s. MVS and Cracraft make interesting value pieces, but my favorite cheap option will be Mecole Hardman and CEH. I will most likely have Mahomes and Pacheco in every line-up.
My Approach -I'll be playing the chalky Browns stack for this Saturday slate and looking for ways to different. Flacco/Cooper/Njoku and probably run that back with Nico. I'll look to get different by building line-ups with the Texans defense, double tight end, Brevin Jordan, David Bell, Mecole Hardman, CEH and MVS. My favorite plays out of that bunch will be Bell and Hardman.
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