4 min read
Is Justin Fields a buy or sell?

In this article, I will be discussing Justin Fields by providing you with all the information for you to make your own decision, and at the end, I will give my opinion. 

Bears last year/offseason additions. 

Fields last year finished #27 in pass attempts with 318, averaging 21.2 attempts per game. He threw for 2,242 passing yards, which ranked 26th overall. He also threw17 touchdowns. On the rushing side, Fields carried the ball 160 times, averaging 10.7 carries per game. He had 28 red zone carries and rushed for the most yards among all quarterbacks, totaling 1,143 yards at an average of 76.2 yards per game. He also rushed for 8 touchdowns. Fields wide receivers last year included Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, and Velus Jones Jr. During the offseason, the Bears traded the number 1 overall pick for D.J. Moore and additional future draft capital. The Bears also ranked 28th overall in pass-blocking efficiency last year. To address this, they strengthened their offensive line by adding Darnell Wright from Tennessee. Wright allowed only 10 sacks in his entire college career out of 2,746 snaps played, and notably, he didn't allow a single sack last year. The Bears also signed Nate Davis to a 3-year, $30 million contract with $19.25 million guaranteed. Davis had a pass block grade of 66.8 on PFF, ranking him 146th overall among guards, tackles, and centers. These moves indicate that the Bears are making draft and financial investments to help Fields take another big step forward this year. 

Justin Fields Stats from 2021 to 2022. 

In this section, my goal is to discuss and analyze the statistics, comparing the numbers from 2021 to 2022. The data used in this analysis is directly pulled from playerprofiler.com. If you're interested in exploring data for any player, I recommend checking out their website. The highlighted sections in the graph below represent the areas that I will be discussing in this article.

Accuracy rating - In 2021, according to playerprofiler.com, Justin Fields received a rating of 6.7 (33rd overall) for accuracy. It's important to note that ratings above 8.0 are considered highly accurate, while ratings below 7.0 are considered inaccurate. However, in 2022, Fields improved his accuracy rating to 7.4 (25th overall), which represents a 10.45% improvement despite potentially being in a worse situation. For comparison, Jalen Hurts had a rating of 6.3 in his rookie season, a rating of 7.4 in his second season, and an 8.0 rating last season. It's worth noting that the Eagles had a stronger overall team across most, if not all, categories compared to the Bears. Despite the differing situations, I believe Fields and Hurts have similar ceilings in terms of their potential. 

True passer rating - In 2021, Justin Fields had a true passer rating (TPR) of 58.2, which ranked 31st overall. However, in 2022, his TPR improved to 71.6, ranking him 30th overall. The TPR takes into account factors such as throwaways and dropped catchable passes. Compared, Trevor Lawrence had a TPR of 54.2 in his rookie season, which saw a significant jump to 95.1 in his second season. It's worth noting that Fields had Matt Nagy as his head coach and play-caller, and their collaboration did not create any great results for Fields or the Bears. However, with Matt Eberflus as the new coach, Fields showed improvement and made another leap forward while adapting to a new playbook. The change in coach had a significant impact on Trevor Lawrence, and it seems to have had a similar effect on Fields. Both quarterbacks will be heading into their second year with the same playbook and different new weapons, which should greatly benefit both of them.

Deep Ball Accuracy Rating – In 2021, Justin Fields had a deep ball accuracy rating of5.5 (25th overall), and in 2022, it improved to 5.9 (16th overall). The addition of D.J. Moore to the offense is I expected to benefit greatly from Fields accuracy. Moore had 29 deep targets last year, averaging 1.7 per game, which was the 4th overall in the league. With Moore joining the team, it is anticipated that the number of deep ball attempts will increase, enhancing Fields ability to make long, impactful passes. However, it's important to note that Fields deep ball completion percentage was 40.40% in 2021 (12th overall), but it decreased to 33.30% in 2022 (22nd overall). This is a concerning statistic, especially considering that player profiler considers a deep ball to be 20 yards or more. It's worth mentioning that this stat doesn't take into account dropped passes. While the addition of Moore may provide more opportunities for Fields to showcase his deep passing abilities, the decrease in completion percentage raises some concerns. It will be important to monitor how this aspect of his game develops moving forward.

Protection Rate – In 2021, Justin Fields had a protection rate of 74.50% (33rd overall), indicating that he had 3 seconds or less to throw the ball. However, in 2022, that number improved slightly to 76.70% (30th overall). Despite the improvement, the Bears offensive line was still considered one of the worst in the league. According to PFF (Pro Football Focus), the Bears had an 82.5 pass-blocking efficiency, which ranked them as the fourth worst in the league. Pass-blocking efficiency is a statistic that measures the pressure allowed on a per-snap basis, with weighting toward sacks allowed. The slight improvement in protection rate for Fields is positive, but it's important to acknowledge that the Bears offensive line still had significant room for improvement. The pass-blocking efficiency ranking further emphasizes the challenges faced by Fields and the offensive line in terms of protecting the quarterback and keeping the pocket clean so that Fields can step into his passes making him more accurate. 

My Personal Assessment - I believe Justin Fields is a buy. Throughout the offseason, Fields has been dedicated to improving his skills, putting in the work, and building chemistry with D.J. Moore. Reports from his teammates indicate that he is committed, showing up early and staying late. This level of dedication and determination suggests that Fields has the drive and potential to succeed. Now, let's break down some super flex trades involving Fields using the Dynasty Nerds trade browser. Justin Fields for a 2024 1st, 2nd, 2025 1st, 2nd and Hendon Hooker I will take the Fields side pretty easily. Fields and Waddle for Bijan and Shroud I love me some Waddle and Fields so give me that side! Joe Burrow for Fields and HowelI am taking the Burrow side, I do not have much faith in Howell being a long-term starter.

Go out there in your leagues and shoot some offers out there for fields and let me know what you think. Tag myself and Dynasty DNA on twitter and let's see those trades! 

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